PHET June 2010

5 June 2010
Tropical Cyclone Phet today lost its cetral eye in the spiral of the satellite view, indicating that the storm had weakened after making landfall in Oman.
In Oman on June 3 and 4th , it caused landslides and floods in the eastern part of the country, in Sur. A town in Quariat lying in a mountain gorge was flooded and people from 200 homes were evacuated. After touching the edge of the Oman mountains, Phet weakened with warm air from the land and continued in a northeasterly direction up Oman's coast and back into the Arabian Sea. It is moving towards Pakistan as a tropical depression which will result in heavy rains.
3/6/2010
Oman state television said the government had ordered police and the air force to evacuate people from areas of eastern Oman, where waves were 8 metres (26 feet) high.
Evacuated people from Masirah island.
Phet was likely to hit Masirah as a Category 3 cyclone but would weaken to Category 2 before hitting Oman's mainland near SUR and the LNG terminals. The 3 LNG production trains, are in Sur in the east, close to the path of the storm.
The major hurricane is developing in the Arabian Sea is called Tropical Cyclone Phet which with rapid intensification may become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds.

Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning Diamond. Who ever names cyclones has a cutting edge sense of humour!
This is one of the largest hurricanes in the Arabian Sea on record, and may be a Phet/ diamond amongst storms.
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) predicts Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today.
The storm is moving towards Oman and it will likely make landfall in Oman near SUR before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan . The coastal region of Oman is likely to get hit . It will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated regions of Oman like Muscat, and will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet may be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

On its way to pakistan on 5 June : flash floods are likely in Balochistan while strong winds would lash in Karachi. People are being evacuated from the coastal areas to safety on Thursday in Pakistan. Rain is likely to flood the 15 million people in metropolis Karachi, with its clogged drainage systems.

Monsoon southwest 2008 forecast

5 June 2008- again a threat of storm ?

The ECMWF is at it again. This scenario, based upon 1200 UTC Monday, would be valid on Thursday, June 5. for Oman and India.

Too early to accept this forecast scenario until at least such a time as it is shared with other forecast models .

Update on cyclone news

The Europian research data of ECMWF numerical forecast model had shown a would-be tropical cyclone threatening the northern and northwestern shore of the Arabian Sea.

However, this prediction was not shared by few other numerical models and ECMWF forecast disappeared as of Friday 23 May.

Surprising that in one day we go from "major" cylone threat to "no" threat? Well better be cautious, many do not believe so. We cannot rule out a tropical cyclone, although the odds are now very low.The onset of the South West Monsoon in Kerala will bring in a tropical depression and the big rains to muscat. Anyway, that is something worth watching for as we all await.

The latest run of the ECMWF is that of 0000 UTC Saturday, which has no tropical cyclone threat.

Tropical cyclone is not predicted in the latest forecast scenarios of the NOGAPS and GFS forecast models.
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WHAT IS NUMERICAL MODELLING OF WEATHER?

The ECMWF DOES NUMERICAL MODELLING OF WEATHER. It is a research organisation supported by 18 European States - Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Austria, Portugal, Switzerland, Finland, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom.

The atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws which can be expressed as mathematical equations. The temperature, wind speed and direction or humidity, air pressure etc will change continuously. ECMWF solve these equations using a super computer to forecast the weather - rain, temperature, sunshine and wind.

However, these equations are complex 'non-linear partial differential equations'. There is no exact solution that can give us the future values. Instead, numerical modelling techniques are employed to provide approximate solutions. The smaller the set of numbers, the less detail we will have about the future state of the atmosphere.

Observations from satellites data are used to calculate the weather (wind etc.) at each point throughout the model atmosphere. The forecast is made in short steps, of about 15 minutes ahead, with each forecast providing initial conditions for the next forecast step.
Their predictions are based upon the available data and using the best science available. But the atmosphere is still more complex than the most complex numerical prediction models sometimes fails.

history of cyclones in Arabian sea

This blog details and pic are extracted from
http://www.met.gov.om/juma/GONU_web_17june2007/cyclones_history.htm

The picture track is from WikiPedia--`Global Tropical Cyclone Tracks by Nilfanion on WikiPedia (2005)`. It shows the paths of tropical cyclones over the northern Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, 1985-2005. During these 20 years for those cyclones that developed over the Arabian Sea, some cyclones entered Oman (e.g., 2002 cyclone that affected Salalah and surroundings).

Some late season storms start over the Bay of Bengal and move westwards across southern India re-generating as they cross over the warm waters of the Arabian Sea.
Once a storm/cyclone has formed over the south-eastern Arabian Sea, it moves north-westerly towards the Arabian Peninsula, sometimes curving north-westwards towards Gujarat and Pakistan and sometimes curving westwards towards the Gulf of Aden.

On 4th June 1980, a tropical cyclone brought 24 hours of torrential rain to Batinah and Muscat regions.
Severe cyclones have occurred in the Salalah area in May 1959, May 1963, and November 1966. In June 1977 a severe cyclone crossed Masirah Island.
In June 2002, a tropical storm affected Salalah city.

CYCLONE DISASTER PLAN for the family

Type of hazards that could affect your family:

• Storm surge, flooding and wind.

• Lack of water, food, electricity, clothes and medicines

Stock emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.
Take First Aid kit.

Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home or in nearby locality.

Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet within 25 kms.
Plan for what to do if you need to evacuate.
Keep one water proof bag ready with essential items in it.

Have a distant friend as a family contact, so all your family members have a single point of contact.

Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your children know how and when to call 9999.

Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.

Use a radio.

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Emergency Numbers in Oman
* Police Emergency...............9999
* Water Emergency.................153
* Electricity Emergency...........154
* Municipality Emergency........150
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Wilayat Wali's Office Hospital Municipality water Electricity

Muscat 24788888 24738036 24704800 24796319 24714300
Muttrah 24714605 24711296 24707079 24796319 24714300
Boushar 24592303 24593311 24590768 24602499 24602895
Seeb 24422278 24450203 24422272 24440624 24455160
Amrat 24876700 24876512 24876682 24875877
Qurayat 24845222 24845002 24845074 24845009
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Medical Services - 603988
Emergency Accident Services - 561447
Other Medical Emergencies - 563625
Talking pages - 24600100
Flight information - 24519223
Passports and Immigration - 24569606

Inquiries on traffic violations - 24510227 / 8
Lost Luggage - 24519504
Weather Forecast - 24519113
Foreign Exchange Rates - 1106
Duty Free Shop - 24519923
AAA (Arabian Automobile Alliance - 24697800 (24 X 7 assistance)
Hospitals
Al Buraimi Hospital - 25652319
Al Nahda Hospital - 24837800
Armed Forces Hospital - 24617997
Khoula Hospital - 24563625
Nizwa Hospital - 25449361
Royal Hospital - 24590491
Sohar Hospital - 26840399
Sultan Qaboos Hospital (Salalah) - 23211151
Police Stations
Airport Police Station - 24510099
Khasab Police Station - 26830199
Sur Police station - 25540099

Category of storms

Category
Strongest Gust (km/h)
Typical Events (Indicative only)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
1
Less than 125 kms.
Negligible house damage.
Damage to some crops, trees and caravans.
Craft may drag moorings.

2
125 - 169 kms
Minor house damage.
Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans.
Heavy damage to some crops.
Risk of power failure.
Small craft may break moorings.

3

170 - 224 kms
Some roof and structural damage.
Some caravans destroyed and blown away.
Power failure likely.
4 .

225 - 279 kms
Significant roofing loss and structural damage.
Many caravans destroyed and blown away.
Dangerous airborne debris.
Widespread power failure.
5
more than 280 kms
Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.

deleted

UBAR - the story of the lost city in Oman

Once upon a time there was a city of towers in Shisr in Oman. A hole in the desert is what remains of this fabled paradise on earth.

The Lost City of Ubar, 85 kilometers north-east from Thumrayt near Muscat was discovered in 1992 by scientific methods . The legends of the lost city of Ubar has for centuries been one of the Middle East’s greatest mysteries. Bedouin tales and local fokelore is cited even today among the local population about the ancient city.

Ubar was even mentioned in the stories of " One Thousand and One Nights". Lawrence of Arabia called it "the Atlantis of the Sands". Most importantly, there is a reference to the city in the Holy Quran where, due to its imposing architecture, Ubar was referred to as Irem That Al Emad, the "city of towers".

The satellite image taken from space is further confirmation of the site of the lost city of Ubar. The radar image of the region around the site of the lost city in southern Oman was originally discovered from space in 1992. The image was acquired on orbit 65 of the NASA Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994 by imaging . The region is of large sand dunes and rough lime stone rocks that form a rocky desert floor. The black track which runs across the middle in the picture is a wadi or dry river. The violet colour is the lime stone rocks on which the city was built. The fortress of the lost city of Ubar was near the wadi, close to the center of the image. The remains of the fortress is too small to be detected now but tracks leading to the site appear even now clearly as streaks. These tracks have been used in modern times and many were in use in ancient times as well. It wasn't a desert in the ancient times! It was a vast savanna with a lake bed more than 20 kilometres long.
It is believed that Ubar existed from about 2800 B.C. to about 200 A.D. and was a desert outpost near an Oasis , on the camel tracks where caravans were assembled for the transport of frankincense across the desert.

FABLED CITY
Myths surrounding Ubar were unparalleled even by "lost city" standards. Ubar was a magnificent kingdom, immensely rich , "streets paved with gold." It was a city of tall towers whose like has not been built ever in the whole world. T.E Lawrence called it "The Atlantis of the Sands."

Ubar was said to have become a hotbed of wickedness and its people corrupted by its riches. It is believed that like the biblical cities of Sodom and Gomorrah, it also suffered the wraths of God. It is aid to have been destroyed by the cyclonic storms that swept away the fort and sucked it into the deep hole that remains even today.Historians chronicle Ubar's destruction somewhere in the first centuary AD.
Very little is known of prehistoric times in the barren deserts of Arabia. The rock drawings in the desert suggest that the prehistoric people of the second millennium were not the Arabs from the north . In the past the descendants of the Mahra tribe inhabited these regions. They were an Australoid by genes and lived in Yemen and the Shahra of southwestern Oman, on the Dhofar highlands. They are now known as the 'lost Arabs' ( al-'Arab al-ba'ida ), and are now the tribes of 'Ad, Tamud and Gurhum. The Shahra tribe are probably descendants of the People of 'Ad. The population is now in small numbers . Their native language is very different from Arabic, something older and called the "language of the birds."
The Dhofar region is a rugged and mountainous region . The Shahra called their land Uz, after the patriarch who must have led them out of The Empty Quarter of the deserts. There was a man in the land of Uz, whose name was Job whose tomb is located just outside of Salalah in Oman.

The 'Ad region possessed something the civilized world greatly desired and valued in those days. The Dhofar mountains had numerous groves of a smal tree, the frankincense tree whose resin was as valuable as gold in ancient times. It was used as a fragrance, for medicinal purposes and for embalming. The Sumerians were using frankincense and it is mentioned in the Egyptian Book of the Dead.
The People of 'Ad tended to the frankincense groves with great care and reverence. The harves was during the month of August. As a holy tree the farmers were only allowed to wear clean clothes, they had to abstain from sex and could not touch a corpse until the harvest was completed. They would make cuts in the branches and gather the sap when it hardened into fragrant crystals. By 900 BC the trade had become a major component of the ancient world trade. Camel caravans and ships carried products throughout the known world. The People of 'Ad had to find a way around their competitors in the desert and so they redirected their trade routes directly across The Empty deserts. On that camel caravan route they built the fabled city of Ubar, around an Oasis. Traders came here with their wealth to do business and to enjoy the fabulous riches available in the city.
It became a walled city known for great wealth and it was the only source of available water before the perilous trek across the desert. The vast wealth of 'Ad was used to create a paradise in the sand with vast palm groves and orchards. It is mentioned in Claudius Ptolemy's Geographos written in the 2nd century AD as the land of the Iobaritae. To the Arab it was called Irem of the Pillars.
The story of the destruction of Ubar.
The story by the 13th century historian, Rashid al-Din, tells how the sinful Ubarites were punished :
"The God punished the people of Ubar with a great wind and a terrible noise from the clouds, which struck them dumb. And in the morning there was nothing to be seen except ruins. From then onwards Ubar belonged to evil creatures, each with a single arm, leg, and eye. And it was known that anyone who went near the ruins would be driven mad with fear."

NASA Imaging radar was used from the space shuttle in1992 to discover the ancient caravan routes through the desert. Images from Landsat and SPOT showed the ancient routes converging at the eastern edge of the Empty Quarter at the oasis of Ash Shisr.
Excavations at the site at Ash Shisr found conclusive evidence that Ubar had indeed been located at the oasis. The legends were correct about the destruction of Ubar. The city was located over an immense limestone cavern a natural feature of the region. Heavy flodding had dissolved it and washed away the lime stones from the underground. Perhaps an earthquake had sucked in the city along with the water in the oasis. It was swallowed up by the very earth it stood on.

Thousand And One Nights. : The story of THE CITY OF IREM.
Extract:
Abdallah ben Abou Kilabeh went in search of a camel that had strayed from him; and as he was wandering in the deserts of Yemen and Sebaa, he came upon a great city in which was a vast citadel with pavilions, which rose high into the air. he could find there inhabitants and that he might enquireabout his camel. But when he reached it he found it deserted, without a living soul in it. He alighted and stood by his she-camel and took courage and entered the city. When he came to the citadel he found it had two vast gates of large size and loftiness, inlaid jewels and jacinths, white and red and yellow and green. Entering the citadel, trembling with wonder and fright, he found it long and wide larger than any thing he had seen before. The high pavilions were built of gold and silver and inlaid with many- coloured jewels and pearls. The doors were even more of beauty and the floors were strewn with great pearls and ambergris and saffron. When he came within the city and saw no human being therein, I swooned and almost died for fear. He looked down from the towers and balconies and saw rivers running under them. The building of the city was one brick of gold and one of silver. Doubtless this was the Paradise promised for the world to come."
He returned to his own country, and he told the folks what he had seen.

It was the city called Irem of the Columns, the like of which was never made in the world,and it was Sheddad son of Aad the Great that built it. Aad the Great had two sons, Shedid and Sheddad. When the father and Shedid died, Sheddad reigned over the earth alone. He was fond of reading in old books and believed of Paradise being built on earth. And he built an imitation of paradise on earth with its pavilions and galleries and trees and fruits . Under his rule were a hundred thousand kings, each ruling over a hundred thousand captains, commanding each a hundred thousand warriors. So he called these kings and said to them, 'I find in old books a description of Paradise, as it is to be in the next world, and I desire to build its like in this world. Go build me a city of gold and silver, whose gravel shall be rubies and pearls and the columns of its vaults beryl. Fill it with palaces, set galleries and balconies, and plant its lanes and thoroughfares with trees bearing ripe fruits and make rivers to run through it in channels of gold and silver.' Take for me such of these precious things from all men's hands and let nothing escape you: be diligent and beware of disobedience.'
Then he wrote letters to all the kings of the world over the earth and it was three hundred and threescore kings and bade them gather together all of these things that were in their subjects' hands. The mines of precious stones and metals were emptied and brought. This they accomplished in the space of twenty years. Sheddad then assembled builders and men of art and labourers and handicraftsmen, who dispersed over the world and explored all the lands, till they came to a vast and fair open plain, clear of hills and mountains, with springs welling and rivers running. This is the place as the King commanded us to find. All the Kings of the earth sent heir jewels and precious stones and pearls large and small and gold and silver upon camels by land and in great ships and there came to the builders' hands of all these things so great a quantity as may neither be told or imagined.
The work building Ubar took three hundred years. Then the king said "make thereto an impregnable citadel, rising high into the air, and round it a thousand pavilions, each builded on a thousand columns of ruby and vaulted with gold. So they returned and did this in other twenty years; after which they again presented themselves before the King and informed him of the accomplishment of his will. Then he commanded his Viziers to prepare for departure to the new city . They spent twenty years preparing for departure. Sheddad set out rejoicing in the attainment of his wish and moved forward till there remained but one day's journey between him and Irem. On the last day God sent down a thunderblast from the heavens of His power, which destroyed them all with a blast, and none of them set eyes on the city.
What actually happpened?

Ubar was a trading outpost when the arabian desert was not in its current barrenness. It was near a water stream which is buried with desert sand now. The rocky bottom was of lime stone which melts when water remains over it during floods. The city was built on such a rocky terrain which dissolved in a flood and thunder storm. From the satellite pictures it is evident that the the walls of the settlement had been built over a huge limestone cavern that had collapsed burying the city beneath the sands. The towers guarded a water source in the surrounding 50,000 square miles qualified as the "great well of Wabar."

When the city crumbled it was the result of something like an earthquake and that the city fell into a kind of hole in the ground just behind a large hill. The path now to walk down the hill to the hole is a bit of a slop.

The Arabic word "Shisr" is the word used for such a hole.

You can drive upto this palce now and in the middle of the night when there is nothing else around you in the vastness of the desert, you can still feel the strangeness of the ancient past which is buried below your feet.